Photo by the great Ester Lin

At the MGM Grand in Las Vegas this weekends UFC event thanks in no small part to last weeks upset of consensus #1 heavyweight Fedor Emelianenko. Will feature a championship bout that should shake up the rankings even more as current champ Brock Lesnar defends his belt against undefeated interim champ Shane Carwin. I will be focusing on the main card and spike prelim bouts.

Main Card

About as close as were going to get to the real thing

UFC Heavyweight Championship

Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin

I doubt I can offer any special insight into this bout or uncover some unforeseen angle/variable. Since the aftermath of UFC 111 when Carwin won the interim strap people have been salivating over this fight. The similarities between these two opponents are uncanny at best, both have won NCAA titles (Brock D1, Shane D2), have ridiculous reach (Lesnar 81′, Carwin 80′) and both fighters swing the two biggest glove sizes in the UFC (4XL for Brock, 5 for Shane). Both men have relied on their hulking size and nigh superhuman athleticism to overwhelm their opponents.

They will finally come face to face with an opponent who can cancel out their athletic prowess in one another. Lesnar may have a slight edge in wrestling but Carwin is no slouch in the rasslin’ department and is the more multifaceted fighter than Brock who has to get you down and maintain top position before he does his most effective damage. Lesnar is also coming off a 10 month plus lay off due to illness, a major hurdle for most fighters especially one with as little cage time as Lesnar who is competing at the highest level possible. These combined disadvantages do not bode well for the current champ. I expect Carwin to make short work of him

Carwin – via TKO

Co-Main Event
Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Chris Leben

Leben is stepping in for Wanderlei Silva on short notice to face Sexyama. The Crippler is a good company man and will make this an exciting fight. Akiyama on the other hand went from fighting an mma legend/superstar to now having to deal with an iron headed brawler who is can derail his title aspirations. If Leben can pressure Akiyama into a brawl, he may win, but Sexyama strikes me as a guy who knows he needs to win and will do his damndest to grind out a win.

Akiyama – via Split decision

Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Stephan Bonnar

Bonnar is REALLY washed up.

Soszynski – via UD

George Sotiropoulos vs. Kurt Pellegrino

When two seasoned grapplers step in the cage you will either get a ground war or bad kickboxing. Since Sotiropoulos has some professional boxing experience, Pellegrino is a wrestler primarily I will give George the edge in being well rounded and having more tools. This fight is evenly matched and should get an awards bonus (fight of the night or sub) I see Sotiropoulos continuing his flawless UFC career.

George Greek Noise – via UD

Chris Lytle vs. Matt Brown

Another fight destined for a awards bonus is a rematch between two exciting welterweights. I see Lytle busting out his submission skills once again.

Lytle – via Sub

Spike TV Prelims:

Brendan Schaub vs. Chris Tuchscherer

Brocks training partner vs Carwins lol. I like Schaub but Tuchscherer’s wrestling pedigree will come into play. Logic be damned.

Schaub – via Sub

Seth Petruzelli vs. Ricardo Romero

The Kimbo killer returns to the UFC, I hope this new guy isn’t as good as his record makes him out to be.

Petruzelli – via TKO

Before the main event of last weekends UFC, there was a co main event welterweight title eliminator between TUF alum Josh Koscheck and English slugger Paul Daley. Starting with a well documented pre fight war of words the two displayed a spirited dislike for one another. But from the pre fight presser to the weigh ins for the event it was apparent that the online sniping and chastising was masking real and palpable loathing for one another.

Then came the actual fight, which ended up looking like your average striker vs grappler bout with the grappler maintaining dominant position for the entirety of the bout. As far as fights between two top 10 opponents vying for a title shot goes this was still a pretty unremarkable fight all around. It also was the second fight in a row in which an illegal strike (knee to a crouching opponent) grazed the pompadour of Josh Koscheck, who still reacted as if he took the blow flush to the temple and was allowed to recover despite multiple angles of slo-mo replay saying otherwise. But that and the entire fight paled in comparison to the following 10 seconds after the final bell of the bout.

After getting up Paul Daley followed Koscheck to give what most would think was going to be some sort of post fight embrace of good sportsmanship, but what was transpired was thecomplete opposite. Daley struck Koscheck with a cheap shot left hook that was blocked and was immediately separated by the referee Dan Mirgliotta and so began the what now seems to be the end of his career in the UFC

From MMA Junkie,

“He’s done,” White said after the event. “I don’t give a [expletive] if he’s the best 170-pounder in the world. He’ll never come back here again.

“There’s no excuse for that. These guys are professional athletes. You don’t ever hit a guy blatantly after the bell like that, whether you’re frustrated or not. It was probably one of the dumbest things I’ve ever seen because he is a talented guy, and he is one of the best 170-pounders in the world.”

Given a day to rethink his actions and stew in the resentment of his own designs, Daley did the right thing and issued an apology. Here it is in its entirety,

“I’ve had a long flight home to consider my actions and regret the mistake I made on Saturday. I would like to apologise to the UFC and the Athletic Commission for what I’ve done as well as all the fans and sponsors that support me.”

“I would also like to offer my sincerest apologies to Josh Koscheck who did not deserve the cheap shot I threw. He did what he needed to do in order to win the fight and get the job done, and I foolishly reacted to the situation. There is no excuse for my actions and I know what I did was very unprofessional. I was immensely frustrated by a collection of things that took place throughout the fight as well as leading up to it, but I’m certainly not trying to condone or excuse my actions.”

“Josh implemented his game plan perfectly taking me down and staying on top of me for the majority of the fight. I was also frustrated about him claiming (and acting like) I knee’d him in the head on the ground when it was clear for all to see in the video replay that I didn’t connect at all with the knee I threw. Then finally, the verbal abuse Josh hit me with in the final 30 seconds of the fight simply pushed me over the edge and my frustrations came out as I knew I’d lost the fight, was unhappy with my own performance and had then been ridiculed by my opponent to top things off.”

“This is certainly no excuse for my actions; I fully deserve to be punished for what I did and hope that everyone I have disappointed can forgive my rash decision. I feel very disappointed in myself for losing my cool and hope that I am able to address my temperament and bounce back from this low point in my career.”

“I feel ashamed and embarrassed by what I did and hope that together my team and I can get through this issue. It will be a long road back from where I am now to earning the trust and respect of the UFC and the MMA fans that have supported me for so long, I know I’ve let you all down but I’m determined to make it up to you all.”

Now comes the waiting game for any following developments to what seems will be an ongoing process of arbitration and or adjudication for what really happened. Koscheck has admitted to using abusive language which Daley alluded to being the reason why he lashed out. Both the in cage smack talk and post fight blow fall under fouls as stated by the UFC’s rules

24. Using abusive language in the ring or fenced area.

27. Attacking an opponent after the bell has sounded the end of the period of unarmed combat.

As cliche as it is two errors of judgment do not inexplicably justify themselves nor do they cancel each other out. What should hopefully transpire is a full review of the incident with suspensions and fines handed to the guilty parties. But a instant life time ban just seems way to reactionary and knee jerk for a major sports organization.

Infinitely more heinous acts have transpired in other major sports leagues from the rampant PED and steroid use in the MLB. NBA stars having altercations involving firearms being drawn. Or the NFL and their having to deal with their stars being accused of sexual assault along with other players convicted of
vehicular manslaughter.

Compared to those incidents a blocked cheap shot may seem negligible, but it should be dealt with in the same manner as any other major sports orgs, by first letting the guilty parties be subjected to the law of the land. After that’s been dealt with then fine, suspended or combine the punishment and when that is done let the athlete redeem themselves and compete.

Hopefully cooler heads will prevail in the end in regards to Daleys outburst. People make mistakes but I personally believe if own up to your error make an effort to change and do better, you should be given a second chance.

The UFC is north of the border in Montreal, Canada to host the rematch of one of 2009’s most controversial decisions. In the main event light heavyweight champ Lyoto Machida must prove again that he is the better fighter than Mauricio “Shogun” Rua who took the undefeated and seemingly invincible champ to a razor close decision that most people (myself included) thought Machida lost. Here is my breakdown of the main card.

Main Event: Light Heavyweight Championship

(Champ) Lyoto Machida vs. (Challenger) Mauricio “Shogun” Rua

Even though I thought Shogun won the first bout, it wasn’t by much. When it comes down to it an in shape and focused Mauricio Rua can give any light heavy problems, even the great Machida. That being said, this fight can easily go either way, both fighters have some the most technical striking in the division along with the best defense and speed. Machida is just as dangerous with his defense & counter striking as Shogun is with his calculated and pervasive offense coupled with his ability to cover up and move out of harms way. Its a toss up but I have to choose.

- Shogun via sub

Co-Main Event

Paul Daley vs. Josh Koscheck

With a well documented war of words behind them & a title shot on the line, the true battle begins for Kos & Semtex. Daley has the edge on striking but everything else goes to Josh.

- Koscheck via gnp tko

Heavyweight
Kevin “Kimbo Slice” Ferguson vs. Matt Mitrione

Both heavyweights are still pretty green and like to stand and bang. Seeing as Kimbo doesn’t have the best of chins & is pretty slow even by heavyweight standards and is highly susceptible to leg kicks. Meathead has holes too but unless Kimbo has drastically improved his wrestling and bjj, I don’t see him winning.

- Mitrione via more commitmentship

Middleweight
Alan Belcher vs. Patrick Cote

Even though I am getting a very strong vibe that my “Don’t pick a fighter coming back from a year long injury and recovery” rule is about to get broken, I will stick too it.

- Belcher via distracting Cote with his horrible tattoo and sucker punch KO

Lightweight
Jeremy Stephens vs. Sam Stout

Stephens been out of the game since 2008, so factor that in and the fact that Stout has been looking like a man on a mission lately. Things don’t look too good for Jeremey, this fight is also a shoe in for one of the bonuses unless one of the prelim fighters do something amazing.

- Stout via beatdown

Props to MMA Junkie for the Tom Lawlor as Dan Severen photo.

Rivetingly edited teaser for the upcoming Silva vs Sonnen championship fight. Thanks to Nick The Face for his dedication and skill in putting this all together. Wonder if Zuffa is aware of videos like this, a ‘Make a Promo’ contest wouldn’t be a bad idea.

Check out the other amazing fan promo for UFC 113.

As a fan of the lighter weight classes and the WEC in general I am going to sit back and pick the ENTIRE CARD. Hopefully this event goes off without a hitch and all the fighters stay healthy and make weight. Now on to the picks.

PRELIMINARY CARD

Leonard Garcia vs. Chan Sung Jung

Bad Boy Garcia is getting a gift stylistically in Jung. The Korean Zombie is a gamer who is known to wade through punches to initiate his game. Leonard is not the kind of fighter you let hit you at will, especially with his whiplash punches.

- Garcia starts the card off with a bang via TKO

Anthony Pettis vs. Alex Karalexis

In my first live mma event at WEC 47 I saw Anthony ‘Showtime’ Pettis kick Danny Castillo’s head off. I cannot in good faith pick against him.

- Showtime via Cemetery kick

Brad Pickett vs. Demetrious Johnson

In a battle of the cartoon nicknames we have the Brit ‘One Punch’ Pickett and Greg Jackson disciple Demetrious ‘Mighty Mouse’ Johnson. This one will be a good high paced scrap & since I heard an interview with him earlier this week I am going with Mighty Mouse to save the day.

- Johnson via UD

Chad Mendes vs. Anthony Morrison

Even though I really like AntMo/Cheesesteak Morrison, Money Mendes will probably wrestle him to bits. I hope Anthony is able to make a fight out of it or even pull out the win.

- Mendes via UD

Takeya Mizugaki vs. Rani Yahya

Striker vs Grappler, Yay this match up has never happened in mma before/sarcasm. This fight is tricky to call with both fighters coming off pretty bad losses, this bout will be a testament to who can rebound and perform the best. Takeya may not be Yahya’s equal on the ground but is pretty good at staying out of trouble and boxing people up against the cage. Conversely Rani has poor striking defense but has to get in close and hug opponents to the ground or pull guard to initiate his world class bjj. If Mizugaki uses a stiff keep-away jab and times his counter right hook/cross he will win.

- Mizugaki via tko

Brandon Visher vs. Tyler Toner

Brandon ‘The Viper’ Visher is a beast. This will be my first time watching Toner and I wish him the best. But Visher is a fighter on the come up and expect him to make an example out of Toner

- Visher via Violation

MAIN CARD

Mike Brown vs. Manny Gamburyan

Now we start the televised portion of the card, the mma veteran and Judoka in Gamburyan has his work cut out for him. Mike Brown is a beast and probably the strongest featherweight in the division. While he may have problems with quicker opposition anybody who tries to plant their feet to stand and bang with Brown usually end up getting countered and while their brain is still rattling find themselves getting tko’ed or chocked out.

Manny won’t be dumb enough to get drawn into a slobber knocker as evident in his last fight with a frustrated Leonard Garcia. Expect the Manvil to try and turn this into a grappling match but to still lose against the former champ.

- Brown via TKO

Shane Roller vs. Anthony Njokuani

In a fight with title implications for the winner expect an intense scrap. Despite his collegiate wrestling pedigree Shane suffers the plight of all wrestlers getting into MMA, dealing with quality strikers. And Anthony Njokuani is as quality as you can get in the WEC’s lightweight division. Anthony will have to show off any improvements to his defensive wrestling and or offensive guard work if Roller decides he doesn’t want to deal with Njokuani’s stand up. I would usually pick a wrestler in this situation but Shane hasn’t convinced me that he is a world beater while Anthony does have moments of brutal brilliance.

- Njokuani via tko

Scott Jorgensen vs. Antonio Banuelos

In one of the most entertaining back and forth brawls of 2009 in WEC 41 we saw Scotty Jorgensen weather an eye poke and sub sequential beating against Banuelos in their first fight. Thanks to a quick finish in WEC 47 and fighter replacement Jorgensen is out to avenge his split decision loss (one that I believe he won). If Scott can put his hands on the quicker fighter in Antonio and knee the bejesus out of his ribs to slow him down me may be able to get a finish.

But the roommate of Chuck Lidell is anything if not scrappy as hell and will make Jorgensen work for every inch of his eventual win.

- Young Guns Jorgensen via hard fought UD

Co-Main Event

Ben Henderson vs. Donald Cerrone

In their first bout I picked Cerrone to get the interim strap, despite his slow starts and somewhat careless/reckless yet exciting approach to cagefighting. Having only seen him survive a guillotine and knock out Shane Roller I had written off Ben Henderson as just a tough wrestler with a hard overhand right. I was wrong, Cerrone was able to out strike Smooth only after he began to loose steam after wrestling and ground and pounding Cowboy in the first 3 frames.

If Cerrone has improved his wrestling and takedown defense he may have a chance. But seeing has defensive wrestling has always been the Texans Achilles heel I doubt he will be able to cover up the biggest hole in his game against a guy who is as pervasive in his wrestling and grappling ability in Bendo. Cerrone has to hurt and punish Henderson and do his damnedest to put him away. This fight is damn close to call but I’m going to go with….Cerrone I guess.

- Cowboy via TKO

Main Event

Jose Aldo vs. Urijah Faber

This fight will be an early fight of the year candidate, if I sound like a indoctrinated Zuffa zombie then to hell with it, I honestly believe this. In the heavier weight classes we have established divisions with known champs vulnerable to winning fights only to protect and prolong their legacy and doing so in less than exciting fashion. It is a simple case of success leading to stagnant and uninspired performances, winning for winnings sake.

Enter the WEC and the lighter weight classes, known universally in combat sports to be the more technical divisions. While not entirely devoid of the raw power and mainstream appeal of their larger brethren, the lighter guys would lose a bench press and popularity contest. But in regards to technique, tenacity and pure unadulterated speed you have to go with smaller guys and no two fighters embody those aspects more than Urijah Faber and Jose Aldo.

Faber the former champ but still the face of the division and most would say the organization wants to prove himself against in my humble opinion as some no name blogger to be the fastest one of the most dangerous men competing in mma today Jose Aldo. This will be Aldo’s first title defense and stylistically his toughest fight. The California Kid is very tenacious, unpredictable, crafty, kinetic, choose your superlative and or adjective it fits, Faber is tough match-up for any featherweight. In the new champ you have a very young fighter with lethal striking an unused but reportedly dangerous ground game, but what makes Aldo special are his unforgiving killer instinct and blinding speed.

In his title bout with former champ Mike Brown a man who holds 2 wins over Faber and was the only man to finish him. Aldo surprisingly started slow and proceeded to turn up his speed and chain his strikes to batter Brown in the first and then swarm and finish him in the 2nd frame with a tko. In the same fight we also saw that Aldo can defend take downs at least the ones of the bullying variety. While Fabers unorthodox style may give Aldo problems its his speed and wrestling that may be his best chance at victory.

Alas I have to go with the new champ on this one, no doubt this will be his toughest fight. But Aldo will remain the champ.

- Aldo via TKO rnd 2

The last and in my opinion best event of the month is getting closer with this weekends WEC event. Here is Zuffa head honcho Dana White and USA Today’s MMA columnist Sergio Non talking about WEC 48, the future of the WEC Lightweight division and the recent debacle last weekend in Nashville at the last Strikeforce event. Link to full article.

UFC, with five weight classes, had 13 pay-per-views last year. What gives you confidence that WEC eventually can match the ratio that UFC is doing right now with pay-per-views?

There’s great fights in the WEC. Anybody that’s ever watched these guys fight on Versus knows how these guys always perform. If we did three WEC pay-per-views a year, I think people are going to be interested in buying them.

You’ve got a lightweight title fight on the card. What’s the advantage to having an overlap at 155 between WEC and UFC?

I actually think it’s kind of cool. I think eventually what we do is, we’re going to continue to add to lighter weights, and you’ll end up seeing these (WEC) guys go into the UFC, the 155 pounders.

So once you add flyweight or divisions like that, you can move WEC’s lightweights and move them into UFC, is what you’re saying?

Yup.

While talk of the flyweight division is always nice, it does come through bittersweet since the talks of adding the 125lb weight class has been hinted at for almost a year. The talks of absorbing the WEC’s lightweights sounds promising but could end up being problematic with the 155lb division already being the biggest weight class in the UFC as it is.

With Zuffa taking the slow and steady route towards building the WEC brand. I still believe they would be better off going with the strategy I suggested in an earlier post and just add the lighter weight classes to the UFC and keep the WEC around as their very own farm/minor league promotion for up and comers and over the hill stars they don’t want other promotions to snatch up. This idea has been mentioned by many other blogs and rings of commons sense but time will tell if the advice will be taken into consideration.

The biggest and most important question was never touched upon in the interview. What is Zuffa going to do if PPV is not a viable option for the WEC? We can only wait until after this weekend to get a definitive answer.

There seems to be conflicting views on the past weekends Lightweight title bout even between the mma statistic and analysis sites Fightmetric & Compustrike. Both tabulated the same very close fight between lightweight legend BJ Penn and the newly minted champ Frankie Edgar. Having rewatched the fight myself it’s still really close with every single round being highly competitive 10-9 only rounds the whole fight through. While Penn did land what seemed to be the harder, cleaner shots, Edgar could be seen as the busier fighter with his high mobility and calculated aggression.

Edgar clearly wanted it more, with Penn being content on waiting for countering opportunities and not cutting off the cage or event hinting at taking the fight to the ground, its easy to see why a judge would give the New Jersey native the nod. Another aspect of the fight that can not be tabulated by a statistical rubric is the perception of Penn and how it might of worked against him. All things considered this was a champion who had until UFC 112 had only been defeated once at lightweight and had finished every opponent since he won the title. Factoring that with Edgar coming in as a +500 underdog who didn’t get eviscerated in the first round and was able to hang with arguably the best boxer in mma in a striking exchange. You can entertain the idea of a judge seeing Edgar as the victor based solely on him not losing or looking particularly bad.

All in all I am glad Frankie won, but the fight was so close I still have doubts he is the best lightweight in the UFC, much less the world.

Now onto the other title fight, I will keep this one short since there is a veritable plethora of opinions on the middleweight champ, whose to blame, who does he fight next, why should we care, etc… This is how it breaks down in my eyes:

The ball is in Dana White’s court. He has to put Silva in fights against opponents who will try to beat him. Whether it is at middleweight, light heavy or heavyweight he has to face fighters who will attempt to hurt him. Demian Maia is a top tier middleweight, but we have to remember his shot at the title was the result of a perfect storm of injury’s and medical suspensions taking away first the intended opponent Vitor Belfort and then the #1 contender in Chael Sonnen. The match up of superstar striker vs decorated and feared bjj practitioner would have been compelling were it not one of the most tired match ups in mma and a repeat of Andersons last title defense against Thales Leites.

Contrary to popular belief I think Silva has now elevated himself into being a huge ppv draw or is on his way to being one. Granted he took the long way around to getting there, the UFC now has another heel champ to go along with their current heavyweight titleholder Brock Lesnar. Instead of taking things personally the UFC brass should be accommodating and put Silva through a gauntlet of super fights until he can stand no more. And the next time one of his opponents is unable to fight, just scrap the fight unless someone begs to take The Spider on. When Silva doesn’t feel like he is in danger or threatened he acts out, so only put him in fights where he will never have that option.

While there has yet to be any official word on the topic, the word on the webs is that UFC 111 did pretty damn good last weekend.

From Wrestling Observer ,

Early cable estimates, and granted, anything this early in the week can be way off, indicate about 850,000 buys for UFC 111 on 3/27, putting it in the top six for UFC of all-time… Dana White didn’t give a number, but in an exchange of messages before we got any figures, he indicated being thrilled with the early estimates he had gotten and that it looked to be well above my prediction (700,000) going in. If this number holds up, it would be the largest since UFC 101 on 8/8.
…

The number speaks volumes for St. Pierre as a drawing card, where he has to be now be considered No. 2 in the promotion.

Surprise 2x, the first card of the year with a belt on the line does exceedingly well. Granted I would still put 110 over 111 in regards to entertainment value. The fact remains that if you want both the hardcores and casuals to buy the cards, one of the champs has to defend his title. Now with the gypsy curse of 09 behind us and all of the champs feeling better and back to training, Zuffa can generate super card after super card…until it runs out of champs. Which brings me to one of my pre blog twitter rants, which I will (try to) keep short.

I still believe that Zuffa would be wise to add in the bantam and feather weight class’s and absorb the WEC fighters into the UFC then giving the WEC its heavier weight classes back and using it as a super farm league for upcoming fighters to test their skills against proven vets who may not be at UFC level anymore but are still too valuable to let another org have them. With 2 more belts and divisions it would give the organization more leverage with its ppv’s & counter programing of competitors. And since I am wishing big why not let the WEC add in some female divisions for the hell of it. I know Dana has gone on record with his views on FMMA not being his cup of tea and too talent deprived at the highest levels. But with more time and more visibility given to the sport that could change.

Despite the populous view of combat sports only being riveting when two giants slug it out, I think the smaller guys can carve out a niche . The UFC’s public relations team (and a season of TUF) given time can build hype & interest for mma’s lighter fighters at bantam (135lb) and featherweight (145lb) which are equivalent to boxing’s light and welterweight classes where the sports two biggest American stars reside at. If boxing can generate shock waves in the media with the indefinitely doomed Maywheather vs Pacquiao bout, imagine what the UFC could do when they continuously have the best fighters in the world face off, mind games, superstitions and fighter negations be damned.

While there were some fights of divisional importance between 107 and 111, there was definitely something missing from those cards. Bottom line Zuffa would benefit greatly if they were to add more divisions. People like title fights, it is the simplest contest of the best fighting the best. And with 7 champs (if they were to stay healthy and injury free) we could have a title fight if not every month every other month. Which would be a triumph for both fans and Zuffa.

From the new sports round table show on Versus The Daily Line that debuted this week. I wonder how difficult it would be to argue MMA with someone as passionate and charismatic as Dana White?

Game season has been in full effect and UFC Undisputed is definitely in line for games I’m going to be churning through before the warm weather hits in Ohio.