Unfortunately I will be at work this evening and will not be able to watch this live, which sucks but its my fault for assuming this was going to be a Sunday card. Bellyaching aside lets get to the picks, main card only.

Shane Roller vs. Anthony Pettis – This is a #1 contender bout for the next shot at the WEC lightweight title. Roller may be the safe bet due to his wrestling, but Pettis has the ability to finish the fight standing or off his back. Going with Pettis on this one.

Showtime via Sub

Cub Swanson vs. Chad Mendes – Swanson is a somewhat one dimensional bjj player who usually lets his reckless style of fighting gets him into trouble. Chad ‘Money’ Mendes is Urijah Fabers protege and a formidable wrestler. Mendes should take this.

Chad via UD or Sub

Scott Jorgensen vs. Brad Pickett – This is a #1 contender bout for the next bantamweight title shot. As a fan of both fighters this is a hard one to pick, Scott is a super aggressive wrestler with solid stand up and the strength of a fully matured farm animal. Brad Pickett is a crafty fighter with a deceptively good ground game for a Englishman. Both are top 10 fighters and I give Scott the edge via coin toss they are so (presumably) evenly matched.

Young Guns Jorgensen via Split Decision

Bart Palaszewski vs. Zack Micklewright – Don’t know too much about Micklewright and am expecting another standard Bartimus performance where he takes a beating and pulls out a miracle sub.

Palaszewski via sub

Main Event – Bantamweight Championship

(Champ) Dominick Cruz vs. Joseph Benavidez – On paper this rematch is a fight of the year candidate. Since the last time they fought Cruz has improved his frenetic hit and run fighting style and won the title, while Joey B has finished his last two opponents, Rani Yahya via brutal tko and then slashing former champ Miguel Torres’s face open then strangling him.

Offensive and defensive abilities aside this fight comes down to one thing, the skill set that defines the lighter weight figters and why the WEC is so exciting: Speed. More specifically who has it and who doesn’t. Dominic Cruz’s style is predicated on his ability to move in and out of striking range, frustrating his opponents and making them swing wildly so he can strike and more specifically counter his opponent at will. He also has the defensive wrestling to keep the fight on his terms. That being said if Benavidez is able to make adjustments and attack appropriately we should be in for a good, competitive fight.

I still see Cruz frustrating the Alpha Male fighter and making his first successful title defense.

Cruz via UD.