The 12th season of the Ultimate Fighter kicks off with a Ultimate Fight Night held in Austin, Texas. Since this card is lead in to a later show the prelims start at 5 p.m. so I will forgo my picks for them and will focus on the main card only.
Jim Miller vs. Gleison Tibau – Skill wise Miller takes this easy, on paper he is the better striker and grappler. Unfortunately for him Tibau is a dread-naught of a lightweight who was still considered huge back at welterweight. While Miller has been bullyed by bigger wrestlers before (Maynard) he should be savvy enough to not make the same mistake twice. Either way he can’t look as tiny and helpless as Caol Uno did against Gleison.
Miller via UD
Cole Miller vs. Ross Pearson – Of the 3 lightweight bouts this contest has title implications for one of its fighters. The British striker Ross Pearson has not lost a fight in the UFC since winning his six figure contract on the Ultimate Fighter. Cole Millers is far from a chump and has a very good offensive guard game, yet he still gets into silly striking exchanges that cost him rounds and fights here and there. Expect to see another brilliant stand up display from Pearson and some unexpected wrestling from Cole when the heat gets turned up on him.
Pearson via UD
Efrain Escudero vs. Charles Oliveira – Props to Oliveira for stepping up on short notice, but he is in for a long night. Stunning submission of the night performance aside I see Escudero holding most of the advantageous in this fight. Granted Escudero is coming off his first defeat of his career via submission no less I still see this fight the same as the Duffe/Russow fight. Finishing a scrub on the undercard is all well and good but lets see how Oliveira does against a decent fighter before we start heaping more accolades upon the young Brazilian.
Escudero via TKO
Main Event
Nate Marquardt vs. Rousimar Palhares – The main event of the evening will crown a top contender amongst the middleweights in the UFC. Marquardt is a well rounded vet and Palhares is a muscular bjj player known and feared for his leg based submissions. All things considered this comes down to two factors: Who is the better wreslter & better conditioned athlete?
In Marquardt’s last fight he was soundly outwrestled by Chael Sonnen and Palhares is fresh of a suspension from holding on to his last submission a bit too long. Even from his last performance I will still give Nate the edge in grappling, while he isn’t a bjj ace he is a black belt and is defensively sound enough to stay out of trouble as evident in that he has never been submitted in the UFC. And while Palhares is strong as an ox, his small frame for the weight class (5′8) doesn’t lead one to believe that he can carry all that muscle mass through a 15 min war with one of the best 185′ers. If Rousimar doesn’t end this quick Nate is going to out work and damage him.
Marquardt via TKO
